Raven Lord

Malganos's comment could be misleading.

The chance of the mount dropping on any run is 1/100. The chance of it dropping on the first run is 1/100. it is 1/100 on the 70th run. it is 1/100 on the 100th run.

It will still be 1/100 on the 10,000th run.

The graph above is why people loose so much at roulette, and why casinos are vast and shiny.

Osx86: Yes. I disagree. You are mixing games. In the scratch ticket world, winners exist because they are required to print winning tickets. Scratch games, like other card games, have a memory. So the game is based on sampling without replacement. Drop rate is not that sort of event. It is like dice games. Dice have no memory, they are sampling with replacement. The odds of any event are static. Thus far, no one has used the right terms. What the graph shows is the likelihood of having that many runs without a drop. The longer the string of no drops, the less likely that string of events is t

To simplify, lets look at the roll of a standard 6-sided dice.

1st time you roll the dice, your chance of getting a 6 is 1/6. 2nd time you roll the dice, your chance of getting a 6 is still 1/6. Even if you roll 5 times without getting a 6, there is no guarantee that the sixth roll will give a 6, the sixth roll is still only a 1/6 chance as the dice have no memory. In that light sgt101 is correct, the odds of a 6 don't improve with every missed roll..

But lets turn it upside down and look at the probability of not getting a 6 over a number of rolls. Your gut feeling should tell you that if I allow you 100 dice rolls your chance on not hitting a 6 on any of the 100 dice roll is smaller than if I only allow you 1 roll of the dice, right? Not getting a 6 on one or two rolls of the dice is pretty common, but rolling 100 times and not get a single 6 is pretty "WTF is wrong with this dice, how unlucky can one guy be?"

If I only allow you 1 roll with the dice, your odds of not getting a 6 is 5/6 = 83%
If I allow you to roll 2 times, your odds of not getting a 6 on any of the rolls is 5/6 * 5/6 = 69%
If I allow you to roll 3 times, your odds of not getting a 6 on any of the rolls is 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 = 58%
If I allow you to roll 4 times, your odds of not getting a 6 on any of the rolls is 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 = 48%
...and so on..

The more times you are allowed to roll, the less chance there is of not getting that 6 on any of the rolls. There is still no guarantees, you could roll a thousand times and not get a single 6, but the odds of that happening is incredible slim.

Try looking at Malganos' chart "upside down" and focus on what's above the line. If you do 25 runs, the chance of missing the mount on all 25 tries is something like ~78%. The chance of missing 50 times in a row is ~62%. The chance of doing 300 runs and miss on all 300 is ~5%. The chance of doing 475 runs and miss the mount on all 475 runs is less than 1%.

No guarantees on ever getting the mount, but statistically it's hard to be unlucky forever, and that's what the graph shows..